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Read the article. It says former al Qaeda strongholds now are quiet with no terrorists in site. Also, 3,500 U.S. troops are scheduled to come home from Iraq.
So, it is possible to tell, and there are plans to reduce troop size.
As far as "reliable estimates," how would you suggest we get them? Go door to door conducting a census: "Is any member of your household a member of al Qaeda? If so, how many and what ages?"
Based on the Commander-in-chief's comments, "al-qaeda-iraq" seems to be a primary enemy of the U.S.
Even I have read about the first rule of war: KNOW YOUR ENEMY
If the commander in chief has dispached 160,000 troops and is spending billions of dollars a month to conquer an enemy or unknown strength there is a real problem..
LOL
Let al Queada send them there and they can die there. I like that better than them sending them here and we kill them here.